Direct Air Capture (DAC) | Market Compass | 2026

Current Landscape of Direct Air Capture (DAC)

​Direct Air Capture has progressed from a research-driven domain into a capital-intensive, globally tracked technology segment. As of March 2026, over $4.35 Bn has been committed or deployed across the ecosystem, with growing participation from public and private capital. Activity remains concentrated in North America and Europe, but credible developers are now active in Asia-Pacific (AirCapture in Japan), the Nordics (Korall in Sweden), and the Global South (Octavia in Kenya). The dataset tracks 871 DAC-related patents across 40+ entities, with filings in 2025 running 4.7× higher than 2023- a leading indicator that the broadening of credible commercial entrants will continue through 2027–2029. 

​The market remains supply-constrained. Through March 2026, Puro.earth is the first and only registry with DAC-specific issuances and retirements, all originating from Climeworks (2,088 t issued; 1,753 t retired). Two flagship facilities- STRATOS (1PointFive, 500,000 t/yr design) and Project Cypress (Heirloom, $600M DOE Hub-anchored)- are scheduled to commission in 2026–2027 and represent the most consequential near-term test of whether the sector can convert committed capacity into verified tonnes.

Investments in Direct Air Capture (DAC)

​Capital deployment has shifted from venture-led broadening into public-capital-led scaling. Annual deal count increased from approximately 5 in 2021 to a peak of around 19 in 2024, before moderating to roughly 10 in 2025. Aggregate capital committed continued to rise over the same period, but the mix has tilted: government grants now dominate the headline, led by US DOE Hub awards (~$1.2 B across STRATOS and Project Cypress, tranche-based), with the EU Horizon programme and Japan's NEDO providing additional public funding. 

​Equity ($2.8 B, ~65% of cumulative funding flows) and grants ($1.5 B, ~35%) dominate the capital stack. Debt finance remains nascent at $11 M, reflecting limited operating track records, high execution risk, and the absence of long-tenor binding offtake at creditworthy counterparties. 

​Capital concentration remains high- Climeworks and 1PointFive together account for approximately 65% of cumulative deployed capital across the top developers At the same time, the field has broadened, with 10+ developers below the top tier now attracting substantial funding. 

​Investor mix is widening. Oil-major venture arms (Aramco, Shell, ConocoPhillips, JX Nippon) have collectively deployed $200 M+ across cohort companies. PE/growth capital has crossed $850 M (Partners Group, BigPoint and similar). Foundation-led capital is also emerging as a distinct category. AirCapture’s ~$50M Series A, led by the Larsen Lam Climate Change Foundation, illustrates the role of mission-driven capital in supporting early commercial deployment.

Market Demand 

​Demand signals run across three layers: contracted offtake, registry issuance, and registry retirement. cCarbon tracks 67 offtake-type deals (49 with disclosed volume) covering approximately 2.9 Mt of contracted CDR through March 2026. Disclosed prices range from $100/t (Holocene–Google) to $989/t (Frontier advance purchases); Median offtake price: ~$650/t. This figure represents the typical transaction in the market and reflects prevailing pricing across most deals. It serves as a more representative benchmark for current market conditions and buyer–seller price discovery. 

​Demand concentration is acute on the buyer’s side. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Stripe (via Frontier) and Shopify together account for most of the contracted volume. Aviation entry is deepening (United–Heirloom, Airbus–1PointFive, JetBlue Ventures–Avnos); financial-services entry is emerging (Zurich Insurance–Parallel Carbon, JPM CDR commitments, Barclays Climate Ventures–Origen Carbon). 

​Verified delivery remains a fraction of contracted demand. Against ~2.9 Mt of contracted offtake, only 1,753t have been verified and retired across registries. The credibility of forward-pricing and forward-capacity numbers therefore depends on whether STRATOS, Project Cypress, and the Mammoth ramp deliver verified tonnes at scale over 2026–2027.

​cCarbon Viewpoint 

​DAC is transitioning from a commitment-led market to a delivery-led one. While capital formation has scaled, the financing mix remains pre-bankable, dominated by equity and grants, with debt still remains negligible. With policy frameworks emerging and largely in place, the focus now shifts to their effective implementation at project scale. 

Several key policy mechanisms are now in place, including the EU CRCF Delegated Act and initial ICVCM CCP approvals. Remaining uncertainties centre on the durability of US 45Q support and the integration of DAC into Article 6 compliance mechanisms. 

​The DAC sector remains highly sensitive to policy execution risk, not just policy design. While headline commitments signal strong government support, the timing, reliability, and conditions of disbursement are equally critical. A set of key developments is expected to shape the next 18 months: STRATOS first verified tonnes; Project Cypress commissioning; first non-Puro registry issuance.  

​These milestones will determine whether the sector can convert policy support and capital commitments into operational delivery. This transition from policy-dependent technology to policy-supported infrastructure will define DAC’s trajectory toward asset-class maturity by 2028.

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